Israel’s retaliatory strike Thursday night against Iran was remarkably restrained.
We, like many other national-security analysts, believed the IDF’s response to Tehran’s April 13 attack on Israel would be big, loud and multilayered.
Instead, it was quietly strategic.
It also was revealing of Jerusalem’s long-term approach to Tehran.
Israel, calculatingly, intends to take a dynamic approach.
Reestablishing strategic regional deterrence by hitting Iran directly is only the beginning.
The IDF began accomplishing that by sending a Happy 85th Birthday message to Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei — lighting up an air-defense system positioned to safeguard the Natanz nuclear complex in Isfahan.
Israel’s strike against Isfahan signaled that the IDF’s close fight remains Priority 1.
List of objectives
For decades Iran has sought to encircle the Jewish state, tasking the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps with funding, arming and organizing militant groups — Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas in the Gaza Strip and a sundry of Shia militias in Syria and Iraq, including Kata’ib Hizballah, Harakat al-Nujaba and Asa’ib Ahl al-Haq.
Post-Oct. 7, Jerusalem is intent on peeling back these threats and eliminating them.
That includes destroying Hamas’ remaining four battalions in Rafah alongside their command-and-control leadership.
Israel’s prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, and his war cabinet will not be deterred from completely destroying Hamas.
Hezbollah is next.
Since Oct. 7, nearly 135,000 Israelis have been displaced across Israel and economic disruption has been severe — especially near Lebanon and Syria.
Netanyahu is determined to drive Hezbollah away from its northern border.
Israel has been targeting key Hezbollah commanders including, Wissam Tawil, in early January.
On Wednesday, the IDF continued its targeted operations against Hezbollah, hitting air defense batteries in Baalbek, Lebanon, in retaliation for the wounding of 14 Israeli troops.
Hamas and Hezbollah, however, are only heads of a hydra. Israel is also determined to destroy the Hydra itself — the IRGC.
Since March 2023, the IDF has conducted six known strikes in Syria targeting IRGC commanders.
Among the killed wasare Colonel Behrouz Wahedi, Brigadier General Hojatollah Omidvar, Brigadier General Seyyed Reza Mousavi, Brigadier General Panah Taghizadeh, Brigadier General Mohammad Ali Ataei — and, notably, Mohammad Reza Zahedi in Iran’s Damascus compound on April 2.
Zahedi’s death is what sparked Khamenei’s decision to attack Israel directly.
He knows much of his regional power is thanks to his IRGC commanders and their forging of unholy alliances.
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Eliminating IRGC commanders is at the core of the IDF’s long-term strategy of neutering Iran and destroying its IRGC network of militant groups and quasi-militias.
Yet Israel’s fights with Hamas, Hezbollah and the IRGC are not its most important fights vis-à-vis Iran.
Khamenei’s rapidly expanding nuclear-weapons program remains Jerusalem’s overarching existential threat.
Netanyahu vowed in 2019 that Tehran would never attain nukes after Iran stated it would rapidly increase its enrichment of Uranium stockpiles past 8% — well beyond any medical or research need.
At the moment, Tehran is only theoretically just days from a nuclear breakout, not weeks or months.
Iran has sufficient centrifuge capacity to enrich its existing stockpiles of highly enriched uranium to 90% — the level required to sustain a nuclear chain reaction.
Conceivably, Iran might have already achieved nuclear breakout.
Only testing and delivery platforms may stand in the way of fielding nukes.
Israel is also likely to continue isolating Iran by building upon the Trump-era Abraham Accords — especially with Saudi Arabia.
Sunni Arabs and Jerusalem share a common enemy: Shia Iran.
White House in way
Jerusalem’s biggest strategic challenge in first containing and then eliminating Iran as a regional and existential threat is the White House.
President Biden and his national security team still believe they can negotiate with Tehran.
Biden’s permissive environment and ever-present fears of escalation are thwarting Israel’s efforts to decisively win against Iran.
Israel needs Biden to lean into winning this war against Khamenei — and the president can do that by returning to a policy of maximum pressure against Tehran.
No more sanctions relief or unfreezing of frozen cash assets that are being used to fund Iran’s war against Israel.
If not, ultimately, Israel will have no choice but to go it alone and militarily take out Iran’s nuclear program — if not Khamenei’s regime itself, as well.
Mark Toth writes on national-security and foreign policy. Col. (Ret.) Jonathan Sweet served 30 years as a military intelligence officer
Source link: https://nypost.com/2024/04/19/opinion/israels-response-is-just-a-start-in-stopping-irans-reach/