Wall Street is puzzled.

Gold, typically seen as a haven in periods of economic turmoil, especially as a hedge against inflation, has risen sharply in price over the past month, even as the outlook for the economy has improved and inflation, although still elevated, is well below recent highs.

The precious metal has set a series of record highs as it surged roughly $300, to $2,350 per troy ounce, since the start of March.

The move has been attributed, at least in part, to a burst of gold buying from central banks around the world, including China. But investors said that central bank purchases did not fully explain such a sudden price increase.

“It’s perplexing to anybody in the gold market,” said Chris Mancini, a gold portfolio manager at Gabelli Funds.

He noted that exchange-traded funds, a type of investment vehicle that trades publicly like a stock, had been suffering withdrawals from investors, which is usually a warning sign for gold watchers. And in futures markets, which are derivatives linked to the price of gold, demand had remained muted until the start of this month when some money managers began buying, official data showed.

And that still does not explain how the rally got started, with some speculation that tumultuous geopolitics are driving public and private investments in gold.

“All we can point to is that it is physical demand from somewhere that is not being picked up in the data we see,” Mr. Mancini said.

Source link: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/04/10/business/gold-price-inflation.html