The price of global benchmark Brent crude oil could surge to $100 a barrel ahead of the U.S. election as Russia slashes its output, according to JPMorgan. The investment bank originally predicted that Russia and Saudi Arabia would begin unwinding some of their production cuts in April to the tune of a 400,000 barrel per day combined increase. But Russia promised earlier this month to deepen its cuts by 471,000 barrels per day. Moscow reaffirmed its commitment this week by ordering companies to slash output, according to Reuters. “The shift in Russia’s oil strategy is surprising,” Natasha Kaneva, head of global commodities strategy at JPMorgan, told clients in a note Wednesday. The reductions are part of Russia’s commitment to OPEC+, which is implementing voluntary cuts of 2.2 million barrels per day through the second quarter. Russia’s cuts could push Brent to $90 in April and nearly $100 by September, which would put pressure on the Biden administration in the runup to the November presidential elections, Kaneva wrote. Gas prices are likely to climb to $4 a gallon by May, the highest since the summer of 2022, according to the analyst. “This price hike could be further amplified by the even-odds possibility of the OPEC+ alliance extending in June its oil production cutbacks to the end of the year,” Kaneva wrote. The price hike assumes that supply, demand and U.S. policy do not respond to Russia’s actions. The White House could, however, tap the strategic petroleum reserve with space to release up to 60 million barrels, Kaneva wrote. The U.S. would likely release 500,000 barrels per month for four months, she said. Even in the absence of U.S. policy action, Brent prices rising above $90 a barrel would likely reduce demand given the reality that the dollar is strong and borrowing costs are high, Kaneva wrote. Demand destruction, in turn, would result in lower crude prices, according to the analyst.
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