The Bank of England held interest rates at the highest level in 16 years, even as inflation in Britain has fallen to its slowest pace in more than two years.
On Thursday, policymakers at the central bank left their key rate at 5.25 percent for the fifth consecutive meeting, a day after data showed the inflation rate in Britain falling to 3.4 percent. The decision to hold was widely expected, but analysts were tracking the votes by the nine-person rate-setting committee to see if a consensus was emerging about whether price increases were under control and when rate cuts may begin.
Eight members of the committee voted to hold rates, with the two policymakers who voted for higher rates last month dropping their stance. One member voted to cut rates.
Policymakers held rates “because we need to be sure that inflation will fall back to our 2 percent target and stay there,” Andrew Bailey, the governor of the central bank, said in a statement. “We’re not yet at the point where we can cut interest rates, but things are moving in the right direction.”
The debate over the timing of rate cuts is preoccupying policymakers at several major central banks. On Wednesday, U.S. Federal Reserve officials held rates steady but said they expected to make several rate cuts this year. The same day, Christine Lagarde, the president of the European Central Bank, said that by June, eurozone policymakers would have more data, particularly on wages, to give them confidence that inflation was under control, fueling speculation that rate cuts could begin in the summer.
Earlier on Thursday, the Swiss National Bank unexpectedly cut interest rates, the first to move among central banks in advanced economies. Inflation has been much lower in Switzerland than elsewhere in Europe, and the strength of the Swiss franc was also a factor in the decision to cut rates, officials said. A strong currency can be a drag on the economy by making exports more expensive — after the rate move, the franc dropped against the euro and dollar.
Policymakers at the Bank of England provided their clearest signal so far that rate cuts were on their way. According to the minutes of this week’s meeting, officials said that policy needed to be “restrictive for an extended period,” but, they added, policy could remain restrictive even after interest rates were reduced.
In response, traders added to bets on rate cuts beginning as soon as June.
For much of last year, inflation in Britain was stubbornly high. Prices rose faster than in other European countries, and a tight labor market pushed up wages. Those concerns have recently started to ease.
Economists expect inflation to slow sharply over the next few months, possibly going below the central bank’s target of 2 percent, as household energy bills fall. Core inflation, which strips out food and energy prices that tend to be more volatile and influenced by international prices, dropped to 4.5 percent last month, the lowest in more than a year. At the same time, the weakness of the economy has put pressure on the central bank to cut rates. Britain ended last year in a recession.
Policymakers have warned that the impact of lower energy prices will eventually fade and that the rate of inflation is likely to creep higher again. Policymakers want to be sure inflation, rather than just touching 2 percent, can return to that level over a long period before they cut interest rates.
They have been closely watching wage data to see if growing pay packets are seeding longer-term inflationary pressures. Annual pay growth, excluding bonuses, rose 6.1 percent in the three months to January, the latest data showed.
Officials at the Bank of England have been split on how to tackle high inflation for a while. Swati Dhingra, who again voted to cut rates, has argued that the weakness of the British economy means that inflation would come down and that the last rate increases might have been excessive and would need to be reversed more forcefully.
Last month, Jonathan Haskel and Catherine L. Mann, voted to raise rates, emphasizing the tightness of the labor market and the risk of deeply embedded inflationary pressures. But both abandoned that position this month and joined the majority to hold rates.
Source link: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/03/21/business/bank-of-england-rates-inflation.html