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This might be the least-exciting presidential primary in recent history. Donald Trump is on track to lock up the Republican nomination after just two states.
But the general presidential election has the potential to be insane: Trump could be on trial for — and potentially convicted of — trying to overturn the 2020 election, or for hiding classified information from the government. He and President Biden are the two oldest presidents in modern memory. And the Supreme Court could blow up everything with several major decisions about the election.
Here are some immediate questions about the 2024 race.
How long does Nikki Haley stay in the race?
The pressure is building for her to drop out. Still, Trump’s former U.N. ambassador argues that there are still dozens of states left to vote, and that Haley got 43 percent of the vote in New Hampshire — a not-insignificant number. (But it was still about 11 percentage points behind Trump, when her supporters were hoping for a margin of five or less.)
The next few primaries will be decisive. Nevada votes in a couple weeks, but everyone is watching South Carolina at the end of February. It’s a state Haley was governor of, and it’s one she probably needs to win (or almost win) to continue. Then in early March, more than a dozen states vote on one day known as Super Tuesday. Trump could have the nomination nearly locked up after that.
“She can hang around until Super Tuesday,” one Republican strategist said of Haley. “After that, she’s done.”
But Haley might want to stay in the race, on the off-chance this unpredictable campaign suddenly doesn’t have a nominee. Because it’s possible.
Does Trump get convicted of felonies during the campaign?
An election-related conviction could be the one thing that pushes Trump-leaning voters away from him, some polls suggest. Or not. Even if he’s convicted during the campaign, Trump could run for president; there’s nothing in the U.S. Constitution preventing this.
We also don’t know when any of his trials will take place. Trump’s legal team has been adept at delaying them. One of the more consequential trials, over his efforts to stay in power after losing in 2020, was scheduled for March. But it’s on hold as the Supreme Court considers Trump’s side argument that he should be immune from prosecution for actions he took as president.
Can Trump even be on the ballot in 2024?
That will be answered by answering another question: Did his role in encouraging the attack on the Capitol make him an insurrectionist? The Colorado Supreme Court said yes, and therefore under the 14th Amendment of the Constitution, he can’t be on the ballot. The U.S. Supreme Court will have the last word. It hears arguments in early February on this. It would be a pretty big surprise if the justices kicked Trump off the ballot entirely. But it’s a possibility. Or maybe they rule in an inconclusive way that leaves it up to state election officials to decide.
What about Trump and Biden’s ages — and the fact they’ve both been president before?
This is, like, the third presidential election in a row where voters seem dejected by their choices. That could shape the race a number of ways: People might skip voting, which could make it an extremely close race, says Doug Heye, a Republican strategist. “Do voters sit out in higher numbers, to where an extra two percentage points in Arizona becomes very significant?” he said.
It also makes third-party candidates more appealing, and thus more likely that one could be a spoiler by stealing votes from Biden or Trump. (More likely Biden.)
And about their ages? Biden is 81, the oldest president ever. Trump is 77, which would make him the second-oldest president ever. Every strategist I’ve talked to is on high alert for either candidate to give a speech that doesn’t make sense, or take a high-profile stumble, in a way that causes a massive voter shift.
Source link: https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/01/24/biggest-questions-about-election-now/