The Bible counts despair as a sin, and if you won’t take the good book’s word for it, look at the reaction to the Iowa caucuses, which proves it.
Donald Trump’s renomination as Republican presidential candidate isn’t inevitable, but the opposition’s sense of palpable defeat could make it so.
Trump soundly prevailed Monday night in the Hawkeye State, there’s no disputing it.
He finished with 51% of the vote and a nearly 30-point margin of victory over his nearest challenger, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis.
Trump has long been the far-and-away frontrunner in this race.
Yes, his odds increased after his victory in the cycle’s first contest but only ever so slightly.
Contrary to conventional wisdom, Monday night’s events constituted a necessary yet insufficient condition for Trump’s ultimate success, not some historic triumph that guarantees him the opportunity to reprise his role as the GOP’s standard bearer.
But the window remains cracked open only as long as Trump’s opponents don’t succumb to despair.
Trump’s win is far less impressive than he — and so many of his frenemies in the media — would have you believe.
This is not some run-of-the-mill open primary with candidates competing from the same starting line.
Trump is not only a former president but one just three years removed from office and designed in a lab to thrive in a political environment driven by negative polarization.
He is better analogized to an embattled incumbent than the most promising of many hopefuls — think Gerald Ford, not George W. Bush (who, notably, is the last Republican to win both Iowa and the nomination).
The man from Mar-a-Lago barely eked out a majority against two viable challengers who have mostly feuded with each other (DeSantis and Nikki Haley) and a candidate who’s spent most of his breath groveling before him (Vivek Ramaswamy).
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That insight should put an end to his admirers’ swooning and his detractors’ wailing.
And things are about to get more, not less, difficult for Trump.
Next week’s New Hampshire primary is expected to be much closer than Iowa’s caucuses.
Haley has been gaining on Trump in the much more predictive Granite State for months, coming within just a few points of her old boss in some surveys — and tying with him in one released Tuesday.
If Haley can finish within single digits of Trump in New Hampshire, the entire character of the race could change.
Haley is also well-positioned to take on Trump in her home state of South Carolina, where she has connections and has seen an uptick in support.
With strong performances in the next two states, Haley could persuade DeSantis to end his candidacy and endorse her.
That would be asking a lot of the governor who seemed primed to win the nomination just one year ago and would likely damage his prospects in the likely case Trump ultimately wins out.
Yet DeSantis has shown a willingness to take the hard path before and would carve out a legacy few in the GOP can lay claim to by eschewing short-term self-interest for the sake of his country.
Alternatively, Haley could flame out in New Hampshire as a result of either her refusal to debate or with a poor performance in one if she changes her mind about participating.
Under those circumstances, the unpleasant task of dropping out and reaping Trump’s wrath after endorsing his last remaining rival would fall to her.
A one-on-one race between Trump and either Haley or DeSantis — both of whom are skilled, appealing and well-intentioned conservatives — could be governed by very different fundamentals than Iowa was.
Of course, the dream of nominating someone who can beat Joe Biden and govern responsibly after doing so hinges on so many happenings and hard choices, it can only be considered unlikely.
All Haley, DeSantis and their supporters can do to make it less so is resist the temptation to despair.
Donald Trump is a powerful political force, but he’s also just a man.
And despite what the devils on our shoulders might be telling us, Iowa’s proof of his political mortality.
Isaac Schorr is a staff writer at Mediaite.
Source link: https://nypost.com/2024/01/16/opinion/its-not-over-yet-heres-how-trump-could-still-lose-the-gop-primary/