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A volcanic eruption in southwest Iceland was diminishing Tuesday, authorities said, but it could nonetheless continue for hours or days. Though lava flows did not present any threat to life, winds could blow harmful gases toward Reykjavik by Wednesday morning, they warned.
The long-anticipated eruption began Monday night, with live-streamed footage showing plumes of smoke billowing up from lava — all cast against the pitch-black Icelandic night. By Tuesday evening, lava flows were estimated to be about one-quarter of what had been observed at the start of the eruption, according to the Icelandic Met Office. Most of the lava was flowing eastward, not toward any populated areas.
Exactly where and when magma might breach the surface had been a matter of high uncertainty — and high anxiety — since early November, when scientific measurements determined that a tunnel of magma had extended underneath the coastal town of Grindavik, not far from Iceland’s famous Blue Lagoon geothermal spa resort.
Police ordered the evacuation of the town of nearly 4,000 residents on Nov. 10 — the first time in half a century that a sizable populated area had to be fully evacuated in anticipation of an eruption in Iceland.
Geophysics professor Magnus Tumi Gudmundsson of the University of Iceland said the main worries had been that the lava could flow over parts of Grindavik and even reach the Svartsengi geothermal power plant, which supplies electricity and supports home heating for about 30,000 people.
Ultimately, the volcano erupted about 2½ miles northeast of Grindavik. Police warned people to stay away from the area. The Blue Lagoon has been closed as a safety precaution. The power plant is being run remotely.
The government said in a statement that there had been no disruptions to flights to and from Iceland and that international flight corridors remained open. This type of eruption, classified as a fissure, does “not usually result in large explosions or significant production of ash dispersed into the stratosphere,” the government noted.
Volcano experts said the event would not replicate the disruption caused by Iceland’s Eyjafjallajokull volcano in 2010, when a huge plume of ash dispersed over Europe and wreaked havoc on global air travel for weeks.
In this eruption, magma plumes reached nearly 100 feet at their highest, state meteorologists estimated. The eruptive fissure, they said, was about 2½ miles long, with the southern edge a little under 2 miles from Grindavik.
The Icelandic Met Office reported Tuesday: “The fact that the activity is decreasing already is not an indication of how long the eruption will last, but rather that the eruption is reaching a state of equilibrium. This development has been observed at the beginning of all eruptions on the Reykjanes Peninsula in recent years.”
Whether the eruption could impact global climate — volcanic emissions can cause planetary cooling — will depend on how long it continues, said Wendy Stovall, a volcanologist and acting associate program coordinator of the U.S. Geologic Survey’s Volcano Hazards Program.
The question is how much sulfur dioxide it ultimately releases into the atmosphere, Stovall said. The gas can create particles known as fine sulfate aerosols that reflect sunlight back into space and decrease the amount of solar radiation reaching earth.
But those particles would need to be spewed high into the atmosphere to have any climate impacts, said Daniel Douglass, a professor at Northeastern University who has studied past climate changes. There, they can linger for months, but closer to earth, they quickly fall to the planet’s surface.
“They’re not getting blasted into the upper atmosphere, which means they’re going to get rained out of the atmosphere pretty quickly,” Douglass said.
Iceland — nicknamed the Land of Fire and Ice — is a hot spot for volcanic activity thanks to its position over tectonic plates that are moving in opposite directions, allowing magma to rise. The country has more than 30 active volcanic systems.
Evacuations underway in Iceland as possible volcanic eruption looms
The system that produced this week’s eruption is not what people might think of as a stereotypical volcano: a conical mountain spewing lava. It involved a stealthier, more unpredictable subterranean flow of magma, tunneling below the Reykjanes Peninsula, slowly pushing its way toward the surface.
“All volcanoes are kind of humbling, but a volcano that appears whenever it wants to is really humbling,” Robin George Andrews, a volcanologist, science writer and author of the book “Super Volcanoes,” said before Monday’s eruption. “We might think we are all mighty and powerful, but we can’t predict what will happen, and, when it does, we just have to deal with it. These fissures can just open up. It’s crazy. It’s like sorcery or something.”
Andrews later described the Iceland eruption fissure as a “beast.”
Magma shifting under Earth’s crust had produced tens of thousands of earthquakes in the Grindavik area in October and November, damaging buildings and splitting roads, making some impassable.
Bryndis Gunnlaugsdottir, 42, a lawyer and former head of the Grindavik City Council, described her town as “fiercely proud” and “very worried.”
“There are all of these financial worries,” she said. “But also: ‘Will my town still be there?’ Our feelings are all over the place.”
Although the town was known to be in a seismically active area — the nearby Fagradalsfjall volcano has erupted in each of the past three years — she said residents were surprised when underground lava was detected so close. “In all scenarios that have been drawn up over the years, the volcano was always supposed to erupt around us, but not in town. We have never felt that our house might not be there,” she said.
Still, she said, many residents have long had personal evacuation plans. Hers involved preparing a “memory box” of sentimental items, including photographs of her parents, trophies and drawings from kindergarten. On the evening of Nov. 10, after “constant earthquakes, so many you could hardly stand,” she grabbed the box from the garage and left town.
“Icelanders are so fully aware of the dynamic and changing volcanic nature of their country, every single person knows what’s going on,” Andrews said. “Often you see during disasters it takes a lot to convince people to leave their homes. But authorities here didn’t need to convince people to leave — everyone gets it, no one needs pandering to. It’s a relief.”
All of Grindavik was evacuated by the early hours of Nov. 11. As the wait dragged on, residents were allowed back in briefly to gather belongings, including pets left behind in the rush to leave. An animal rescue organization also worked to evacuate pets.
Gudmundsson, at the University of Iceland, said this eruption could be more serious than the recent Fagradalsfjall eruptions, which attracted volcano tourism. Kaleo, an Icelandic band, performed a live acoustic gig in 2021 with lava spewing in the background.
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This eruption “is not considered tourist-friendly,” Gudmundsson said. “This could be lava flowing and destroying infrastructure and houses.”
“There could be quite some disruption and a lot of damage,” Gudmundsson said before the eruption. “It’s quite serious when you have to evacuate 3,700 people and you don’t know when they can return.”
News agencies installed webcams on nearby volcanic hills so people could watch the eruption.
Scott Dance and Matthew Cappucci contributed to this report.
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