Several tailwinds that have not been in place for a decade now make the Brazilian mining giant Vale SA too attractive to ignore, according to Goldman Sachs. Goldman upgraded Vale to buy on Tuesday and raised its stock price target by 60% to $19.50, implying nearly 25% upside from the stock’s $15.65 close on Monday. The Wall Street investment bank believes a more balanced supply and demand picture for iron ore will lift Vale in 2024 after bearish worries this year about steel production and growth in China had capped the company’s performance. Goldman forecasts iron ore prices of $110 per ton next year and estimates that Vale is internally pricing in a $104 per ton price. “We believe the story is now too attractive to ignore and investors will slowly increase exposure as confidence around iron ore supply/demand balance in 2024 increases,” analyst Marcio Farid wrote. Vale has also demonstrated positive operational momentum, has relatively low investor exposure (albeit “mainly from local Brazilian investors”), and an attractive valuation that makes the company among the cheapest mining majors, according to Goldman. The investment bank also expects ongoing policy support in China The key downside risks are weaker-than-expected iron ore prices in 2024 and less policy support in China to back up its ailing property market, according to Goldman.
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