Investors can breathe a sigh of relief now that September — historically the worst month of the year for stocks — is in the rear-view mirror. This past September certainly lived up to its reputation, with the S & P 500 and the Nasdaq suffering their biggest monthly losses in 2023. However, changing the calendar may not be enough to erase three material hurdles standing in the way of stocks returning to their winning ways. We’re talking about this year’s rise in bond yields, oil prices and the dollar — all at the time same. The 10-year Treasury yield on Monday hit its highest level since October 2007, breaking slightly above 4.7%, in a continuation of its march higher since April. In the third quarter alone, the 10-year yield climbed from roughly 3.8% to Friday’s settle of nearly 4.58%. In the three months that ended Friday, both the U.S. oil benchmark and the international crude standard posted their largest quarterly price increases since the first quarter of 2022, when Russia’s invasion of Ukraine roiled energy markets and sent the commodity soaring. The U.S. dollar index — which measures the greenback against six other currencies including the euro and Japanese yen – is riding an 11-week win streak, en route Monday to fresh highs for the year. To be sure, other factors such as a potential U.S. government shutdown — which has been temporarily avoided — and the multiweek United Auto Workers strike against General Motors (GM), Jeep parent Stellantis (STLA) and Club holding Ford Motor (F) have also injected uncertainty into the marketplace. Nevertheless, bond yields, oil prices and the dollar always have far-reaching implications for the stock market. Here’s a closer look at how they’re currently impacting things. US10Y YTD mountain 10-yield Treasury yield YTD It all starts with the bond market. “The higher yields, that’s what’s been pressuring the equity market,” Wharton School professor Jeremy Siegel said Monday on CNBC. Indeed, U.S. government bond prices sold off in September. The resulting jump in yields — which move inversely to bond prices — accelerated after the Federal Reserve on Sept. 20 indicated interest rates may stay “higher for longer,” as the central bank seeks to bring inflation down further, and the market finally listened. Of course, there are those of us who are worried that the full impact of the 11 rate hikes already made by the Fed since March 2022 has not fully been realized in the economy. Therefore, we think a higher-for-longer policy may be misguided. In September, the S & P 500 dropped 4.9% while the tech-heavy Nasdaq slumped 5.8%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average proved to be the relative outperformer, falling only 3.5% in the month. Still, the Dow’s decline was its worst monthly decline since February. Bonds impact stocks in multiple ways, including competing over investment dollars. Higher yields on U.S. government notes — which are the closest possible thing to a risk-free investment — can make bonds more attractive to own compared to stocks. That results in fewer incremental dollars going into riskier equities. Essentially, the risk-reward bar for stocks is raised when bonds offer more competitive returns than they did before. This plays out most notably in the utilities sector , which has by far been the worst-performing sector in the S & P 500 this year, down more than 20%. The group traditionally is slower growing but offers large dividend payments, kind of like bonds. Bonds figure heavily into the way investors think about valuing stocks, especially for growth-oriented companies whose profits are largely expected to be generated years down the road. In a higher yield environment, those projected future earnings are worth less to investors today. This dynamic manifests in investors reconsidering the “multiple” they’re willing to pay for each dollar of earnings — which in turn can lower the price at which they’re willing to buy shares of a given company. Unprofitable companies tend to get hit harder when interest rates rise, which is why when the Fed started hiking last year we made a rule for the Club to only buy stocks of profitable, cash-flow generative companies. In general, companies generating substantial profits are typically less sensitive to the change in yields. @CL.1 @LCO.1 YTD mountain WTI vs. Brent crude YTD In the third quarter, West Texas Intermediate crude, the U.S. oil standard, rose more than 28% to nearly $91 per barrel. The global benchmark, Brent crude, jumped more than 27% to just over $92 per barrel. Both oil gauges are riding four-month win streaks after WTI traded in just the upper $60s in mid-June and Brent traded in the low $70s around the same time. The increase in oil prices over the summer months into the fall largely reflects a mismatch between demand (as economic data has proven more resilient than expected) and available supply (as major oil exporters Saudi Arabia and Russia took voluntary steps to reduce production). In early September, the two countries announced their supply cuts would extend through year-end, a surprise decision that added upward pressure on oil prices. For oil-and-gas companies, such as Club names Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD) and Coterra Energy (CTRA), higher prices are a boon to their financials. It’s no surprise energy was the only positive sector of the 11 in the S & P 500 in September. The picture is less clear-cut when considering the impact higher oil prices can have on consumers and non-energy companies. Consumers needing to pay more at the gas pump, in theory, cuts into the money they have available to spend on discretionary goods — an important dynamic to watch given consumer spending makes up about two-thirds of U.S. economic activity. Discretionary spending is on stuff consumers want, not the staples they have to have to conduct their daily lives. For much of the first part of the year, lower energy prices contributed to the decline in inflation. Now, crude has gone from tailwind to headwind in the battle to bring down inflation. To bond traders who have been driving yields higher, stickier inflation means possibly a heavier-handed Fed — the higher-rates-for-longer scenario. Inflation reduces the attractiveness of owning bonds, motivating investors to sell and in the process pushing up yields. “Don’t forget: Bondholders look at overall inflation. They don’t just look at core inflation,” Siegel said. “Core inflation might be doing good. Overall inflation is going to be affected by those oil prices.” Non-energy companies feel pain from more expensive oil, increasing transportation and freight costs that could cut into profit margins. Of course, firms could mitigate higher fuel costs by raising prices on the finished products — protecting their bottom lines in the near term but adding to the inflationary pressures in the broader economy. Technically, the Fed focuses on core inflation data, which strips out more volatile food and energy prices. However, companies passing through their higher energy costs would eventually make their way into inflation data. To be sure, firms “might struggle to pass on rising input costs this time, in contrast to [2021 and 2022],” JPMorgan global equity strategists wrote in a note to clients Monday. In many cases, crude prices trending higher could be interpreted as a sign of economic health — if there’s a lot of activity out there, that’s going to drive demand for oil, supporting prices. In those situations, equity investors might be more encouraged by the strong economic data and what that means for revenue and profit growth, rather than their concern about the inflationary impacts. It’s a bit more nuanced this time around, with the rise in oil prices primarily tied to a “supply shock, Wharton’s Siegel said, versus a significant increase in demand. @DX.1 YTD mountain U.S. dollar index YTD The U.S. dollar is once again something for stock market investors to worry about — territory it occupied for a good chunk of last year, as it soared to its highest levels in two decades. Higher rates often lead to a stronger dollar. In that way, the Fed’s higher-for-longer approach served not only to pump bond yields but the dollar, too. After a downward trend that began last fall , the U.S. dollar index reached its lowest level of 2023 on July 13, at 99.77 – representing a 12.6% decline from its September 2022 high of 114.11, according to FactSet. However, the U.S. dollar index has returned to rally mode, up about 7% to 106.89 on Monday since its July nadir. “Historically, strengthening [in the dollar] was almost always met with risk-off in equities,” JPMorgan wrote in its Monday to clients. A strengthening U.S. dollar is particularly problematic for U.S.-based companies that generate a significant portion of their sales overseas, such as Club holding Procter & Gamble (PG) and tech stalwarts like Meta Platforms (META) and Apple (AAPL). Converting profits generated overseas in weaker currencies into stronger dollars can weigh on reported revenue sales and bottom-line earnings. At the Club, we tend to look through currency fluctuations and focus more on each company’s underlying fundamentals. Our longer-term focus enables this approach, but we recognize that other, influential traders and investors take a different view, which can impact the overall market. (Jim Cramer’s Charitable Trust is long META, AAPL, PG, PXD and CTRA. 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People walk along Wall Street outside of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) on May 03, 2023.
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Investors can breathe a sigh of relief now that September — historically the worst month of the year for stocks — is in the rear-view mirror. This past September certainly lived up to its reputation, with the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq suffering their biggest monthly losses in 2023. However, changing the calendar may not be enough to erase three material hurdles standing in the way of stocks returning to their winning ways.
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