Despite an unexpected banking crisis that had reverberations across markets and the broader global economy, equities ended the first quarter of the year on a positive note last Friday. But the first week of trading of the second quarter got off to a rocky start, forcing us to recalibrate our approach to the market. For starters, the S & P 500 Short Range Oscillator flipped to overbought territory for the start of the quarter, giving us an opportunity to scale back some of our positions and raise cash. But as the week progressed, stocks came under pressure amid signs the labor market is softening, fueling fresh investor fears of a recession. That prompted many investors to dump technology stocks in favor of defensive sectors like health care and consumer staples. Consistent with our discipline, we followed through on what Jim Cramer outlined on Sunday and used this week’s volatility to opportunistically sell, along with a couple of buys. This week of trading comes on the heels of a buying spree in the second half of March, when the market was oversold and uncertainty over the financial sector dominated. Here’s a wrap-up that explains how our broader view of the market influenced our trading decisions this week: Monday Guided by the Oscillator, we decided to trim shares of our networking holding at the start of the week. We sold 160 shares of Cisco Systems (CSCO) into strength Monday, with the stock having rallied roughly 10% since the company’s fiscal second-quarter report in February. In that quarter, Cisco delivered a beat on revenue and profit, while raising its guidance. However, investors like us are still questioning whether Cisco’s orders can continue to grow on par with 2022. Earlier this year, we started to get concerned over Cisco’s order-growth prospects amid a slowdown in IT spending. As a result, we remain cautious on Cisco until we get a better idea of growth expectations for next year. Tuesday Tuesday was our busiest day of trades . We had a mix of selling and opportunistic buying across our energy, consumer staples, infrastructure and health-care holdings. We decided to exit our position in Devon Energy (DVN), selling 500 shares of the energy company after an unexpected production cut from OPEC+ boosted oil stocks. We had been planning to part with Devon since it delivered a disappointing fourth quarter , leading to a lower fixed-plus-variable dividend. This trade also gave us a chance to scale back our weighting in the oil-and-gas sector. But we’re continuing to hold Coterra Energy (CTRA), which has exposure to natural gas. We have a stake in Halliburton (HAL) for its strong pricing power and expect it to benefit from years of underinvestment in the industry. Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD) is another one of our energy names we hold for its solid capital efficiency and a 10.5% dividend yield. We plan to stick with these three oil stocks, given energy prices are likely to move even higher amid ongoing geopolitical turmoil. We trimmed our position in Procter & Gamble (PG), selling 100 shares of the consumer goods giant while downgrading our rating of the stock to a 2. Shares of P & G had a troubled start to the year as investors piled into tech, but the stock has recently been on the rise after some Wall Street analysts upgraded the company to a buy rating. The boost in shares gave us a chance to trim our position and raise some cash. We’re still big fans of P & G for its ability to maintain pricing power. We also see a favorable set up for the stock for the rest of the year as some commodity costs come down. We bought 20 shares of manufacturing giant Caterpillar (CAT), as signs of a weaker economy prompted a market rotation into defensive stocks. So, we strategically bought shares of CAT on weakness because we favor the company long-term for its strong order backlog and dividend strength. With the market’s move into health-care stocks this week, we sold 20 shares of biopharmaceuticals giant Eli Lilly (LLY) into strength after the stock’s rise over the past month. We’re still long-term holders of the company, and our investment case hasn’t changed. We continue to believe Eli Lilly’s obesity and diabetes treatment, Mounjaro, could be one of the best-selling drugs of all time. Thursday We ended the trading week by purchasing this automation-focused industrial giant on weakness. We added 50 shares to Emerson Electric (EMR) on Thursday, with the stock down around 4.5% this week. Our purchase comes ahead of a likely decision on Emerson’s bid to acquire measurement equipment maker National Instruments (NATI) for $53 per share. If Emerson were to secure the winning bid in the mid-$50s-per-share range, its stock should trade higher because the deal would be accretive to earnings-per-share. And if Emerson were to walk away from the deal, the stock could trade higher as well — mainly because uncertainty over the takeover, which crushed the stock in January, would be eliminated. We expect that management would abandon the transaction should the price move too high, freeing up cash for other acquisition opportunities or, more likely, a share buyback. (See here for a full list of the stocks in Jim Cramer’s Charitable Trust.) As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust’s portfolio. If Jim has talked about a stock on CNBC TV, he waits 72 hours after issuing the trade alert before executing the trade. 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Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange during morning trading on January 17, 2023 in New York City.
Michael M. Santiago | Getty Images
Despite an unexpected banking crisis that had reverberations across markets and the broader global economy, equities ended the first quarter of the year on a positive note last Friday. But the first week of trading of the second quarter got off to a rocky start, forcing us to recalibrate our approach to the market.
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