WASHINGTON — American undercover agent companies have concluded in a brand new intelligence review that Al Qaeda has no longer reconstituted its presence in Afghanistan because the U.S. withdrawal final August and that just a handful of longtime Qaeda contributors stay within the nation.

The terror staff does no longer be able to release assaults from the rustic in opposition to the United States, the review stated. Instead, it stated, Al Qaeda will depend on, no less than for now, an array of dependable associates outdoor the area to hold out possible terrorist plots in opposition to the West.

But a number of counterterrorism analysts stated the undercover agent companies’ judgments represented an positive snapshot of a fancy and fast-moving terrorist panorama. The review, a declassified abstract of which was once supplied to The New York Times, represents the consensus perspectives of the U.S. intelligence companies.

“The review is considerably correct, but it surely’s additionally essentially the most certain outlook on a danger image this is nonetheless moderately fluid,” stated Edmund Fitton-Brown, a former best U.N. counterterrorism professional.

The review was once ready after Ayman al-Zawahri, Al Qaeda’s best chief, was killed in a C.I.A. drone strike in Kabul final month. The dying of al-Zawahri, some of the global’s most-wanted terrorist leaders, after a decades-long manhunt was once a big victory for President Biden, but it surely raised speedy questions on al-Zawahri’s presence in Afghanistan a yr after Mr. Biden withdrew all American forces, clearing the way in which for the Taliban to regain keep an eye on of the rustic.

Republicans have stated that the president’s pullout has endangered the United States. The reality the Qaeda chief felt protected sufficient to go back to the Afghan capital, they argue, was once an indication of a failed coverage that they predicted would permit Al Qaeda to rebuild coaching camps and plot assaults regardless of the Taliban’s pledge to disclaim the crowd a protected haven. Last October, a top Pentagon official stated Al Qaeda may be capable to regroup in Afghanistan and assault the United States in a single to 2 years.

Administration officers have driven again on the newest criticisms, noting a pledge Mr. Biden made when he introduced al-Zawahri’s dying.

“As President Biden has stated, we can proceed to stay vigilant, at the side of our companions, to shield our country and be sure that Afghanistan by no means once more turns into a protected haven for terrorism,” Adrienne Watson, a spokeswoman for the White House’s National Security Council, stated in an e-mail on Saturday.

Yet some outdoor counterterrorism consultants noticed the brand new intelligence review as overly hopeful.

A U.N. report warned this spring that Al Qaeda had discovered “higher freedom of motion” in Afghanistan because the Taliban seized energy. The document famous that quite a few Qaeda leaders had been in all probability residing in Kabul and that the uptick in public statements by way of al-Zawahri instructed that he was once in a position to steer extra successfully after the Taliban seized energy.

“This turns out like an excessively rosy review to the purpose of being reasonably myopic,” Colin P. Clarke, a counterterrorism analyst on the Soufan Group, a safety consulting company primarily based in New York, stated of the intelligence research. He added that the abstract stated “little concerning the longer-term possibilities of Al Qaeda.”

Al-Zawahri’s dying has as soon as once more solid a focus on Al Qaeda, which after Osama bin Laden’s dying in 2011 has in large part been overshadowed by way of an upstart rival, the Islamic State. Many terrorism analysts stated Saif al-Adel, a senior Qaeda chief needed by way of the F.B.I. within the bombings of 2 United States embassies in East Africa in 1998, was once prone to be triumphant al-Zawahri. He is thought to be residing in Iran.

“Basically, I to find the I.C. review convincing,” stated Daniel Byman, a professor at Georgetown University, regarding the U.S. intelligence group and its new research of Al Qaeda in Afghanistan. Mr. Byman has in the past voiced skepticism about a resurgent Qaeda threat.

But different counterterrorism mavens disagreed. One level of dispute concerned claims within the intelligence abstract that Al Qaeda had no longer reconstituted its danger community in Afghanistan and that al-Zawahri was once the one primary determine who sought to reestablish Al Qaeda’s presence within the nation when he and his circle of relatives settled in Kabul this yr.

“Zawahri was once THE chief of Al Qaeda, so his being safe by way of the Taliban whilst he supplied extra energetic steering to the crowd was once in of itself reconstitution,” Asfandyar Mir, a senior skilled on the United States Institute of Peace, wrote in an e-mail.

“This manner fails to account for the crowd Al Qaeda is nowadays and the truth that even a small choice of core leaders can leverage Afghanistan to politically direct the crowd’s associate community,” Mr. Mir wrote. “Al Qaeda doesn’t want massive coaching camps to be bad.”

Some counterterrorism mavens additionally took factor with the federal government analysts’ judgment that fewer than a dozen Qaeda core contributors with longtime ties to the crowd are in Afghanistan, and that the majority of the ones contributors had been most probably there earlier than the autumn of the Afghan govt final summer time.

“Their numbers of energetic, hard-core Al Qaeda in AfPak make no sense,” stated Bruce Hoffman, a terrorism student on the Council on Foreign Relations, regarding Afghanistan and Pakistan. “At least 3 dozen senior Qaeda commanders had been free of Afghan jails a yr in the past. I very a lot doubt they’ve grew to become to farming or accounting as their post-prison vocations.”

Mr. Hoffman stated that Qaeda operatives or their associates were given vital administrative tasks in no less than 8 Afghan provinces. He instructed the timing of the federal government review was once “to deflect consideration from the disastrous penalties of final yr’s shambolic withdrawal from Afghanistan.”

The intelligence abstract additionally stated that contributors of the Qaeda associate in Afghanistan, previously referred to as Al Qaeda within the Indian Subcontinent, or AQIS, had been in large part inactive and centered basically on actions like media manufacturing.

But a U.N. document in July estimated that the Qaeda associate had between 180 to 400 opponents — “basically from Bangladesh, India, Myanmar and Pakistan” — who had been in numerous Taliban battle devices.

“We know from a variety of assets that AQIS participated within the Taliban’s insurgency in opposition to the U.S. in addition to operations in opposition to ISIS-Okay,” Mr. Mir stated, regarding the Islamic State’s department in Afghanistan, a sour rival of Al Qaeda.

There was once vast settlement on no less than two details within the intelligence abstract, together with that Al Qaeda does no longer but be able to assault the United States or American pursuits aboard from Afghan soil.

The United Nations document in July concurred with that judgment, explaining that Al Qaeda “isn’t considered as posing a right away world danger from its protected haven in Afghanistan as it lacks an exterior operational capacity and does no longer lately need to reason the Taliban world issue or embarrassment.”

And govt analysts in addition to outdoor terrorism mavens agreed that Al Qaeda in Afghanistan would, within the quick time period, in all probability name upon a variety of associates outdoor the area to hold out plots.

None of those associates pose the similar roughly danger to the American fatherland that Al Qaeda did on Sept. 11, 2001. But they’re fatal and resilient. The Qaeda associate in East Africa killed 3 Americans at a U.S. base in Kenya in 2020. A Saudi Air Force officer coaching in Florida killed three sailors and wounded eight other people in 2019. The officer acted on his personal however was once involved with the Qaeda department in Yemen as he finished his assault plans.